NIAS Strategic Forecast 05 / Myanmar 2016: What next for the NLD?

Publication Type:

Strategic Forecast


National Institure of Advanced Studies (2016)



<div>Myanmar has witnessed significant political and socioeconomic changes during the last five years. Civilian leaders have emerged in a military dominated polity where policy decisions are made through the Parliament. With a GDP growth rate of 7.7 percent and an estimated $74 billion in 2015, Myanmar is one of the rising economies today compared to being a least developed country few years ago. The daily life of the average citizen in Myanmar is better, aided by increasing investment, employment opportunities and new found personal freedom.</div><div>&nbsp;</div><div>While there is widespread recognition within and internationally that the military (<span data-scayt_word="Tatmadaw" data-scaytid="1">Tatmadaw</span>) is the main driver of the current transition, yet there are big questions: Will the military permit triumphant National League for Democracy (<span data-scayt_word="NLD" data-scaytid="2">NLD</span>) to govern the country peacefully? Will the meaningful changes initiated in 2011 continue? Will Myanmar under <span data-scayt_word="NLD" data-scaytid="3">NLD</span> move towards a more inclusive and stable development progress? Will peace be finally achieved between the <span data-scayt_word="centre" data-scaytid="6">centre</span> —<span data-scayt_word="Bamar" data-scaytid="7">Bamar</span> dominated government—and the periphery—ethnic minorities, which control parts of the states in the border areas? Will <span data-scayt_word="NLD" data-scaytid="4">NLD</span> succeed in addressing the thorny issue of the religious minority <span data-scayt_word="Rohingyas" data-scaytid="8">Rohingyas</span>? How will the relations between Myanmar and China develop under <span data-scayt_word="NLD" data-scaytid="5">NLD</span> regime?</div>